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Portfolio Creation: Concentration or Diversification?

gears John Maynard Keynes was probably the most influential economist of his time. He also managed the portfolio of an insurance company and the endowment of Kings College. In the 1940s, a debate raged between the ideas of broad portfolio diversification and portfolio concentration. Keynes was an advocate for concentration. In January of 1942, he purchased a large position in Elder Dempster for The Provincial Insurance Company. F. C. Scott of Provincial questioned why such a large position was purchased, Keynes replied,

"...that I preferred one investment about which I had sufficient information to form a judgment to ten securities about which I know little or nothing."

Sounds reasonable? Keynes' response illustrates the cognitive resource limitations of learning about the many firms needed to be diversified and possibly hints at a common heuristic adaptation: familiarity. In short, people prefer those things that are familiar to them.

Later, Harry Markowitz would present the mathematical case for diversification, win the Nobel Prize for Economics for his Modern Portfolio Theory, and effectively end the debate for scholars and investment professionals. Diversification allows investors to earn the highest expected return for the level of risk desired.

However, the behavior of the individual investor tells a different story. The portfolios formed by individual investors suggest that they hold surprisingly under-diversified stock portfolios and invest too large a portion of their retirement savings in their employer's stock. Even though both scholars and the media have advocated the benefits of diversification for decades, it seems absurd that actual portfolios have three (median) stocks or four (average) stocks.

Why do individual investors fail to diversify?

 

See Polkovnichenko, Valery, 2005, Household portfolio diversification: A case for rank-dependent preferences, Review of Financial Studies 18, 1467-1502.

Comments

They may want, but they just couldn't

Lots of reasons can explain that individual investors fail to diversify. Insufficient money, time, and knowledge may be among the pool. Buying a stock mutual that takes the market index as the benchmark is the most simple and tradictional investment that individual investors can diversify their risk. The problem of investigating individual investors' investment is that none of the data represents the whole picture of an investor. He or she may be diversified in some portion of his/her investment and undiversified in the other portion.


Although one may be able to

Although one may be able to earn a higher return with a given risk by diversifying, it all comes down to what was stated in the blog. Investors, and people in general, usually interact with companies they are most comfortable and familiar with. In many cases, this is they company they work for. Familiarity seems to be what's keeping people's investments in one place.


In my opinion, most

In my opinion, most individual investors simply do not wish to spend the time to find information about several different companies. In addition, it can be hard to know where to look for a new company to add to your portfolio. I think this is one reason people invest so heavily in a few stocks and in ones that they know and have contact with. It also explains why individual investors invest in stocks that are in the news as one of your other pieces states.


This is a very intresting

This is a very intresting point. I myslef know very little about portfolio's, but from what I have read it seems to me that concentration is better than diversification when it comes to knowledege of stocks and the market. I myslef would probably be an advocate of concentration because investing in mulitple stocks I know nothing about seems like a very unwsise decision.


FIN 325

That's a good point. People generally want to stick with what they're familiar with, especially if they're worried about the possible risk involved with investing. And it'd seem rare for most investors to do a lengthy amount of research on several different portfolio options, especially if probability of risk is an issue. Granted, diversification can yield higher returns, I'd be somewhat leary about investing a good portion of my money in companies I'm not familiar with, even if I was a very experienced investor.


smart investing takes time

I think it really comes down to lack on time and knowledge. the amount of time required to research several companies could leave a potential investor confused and overwhelmed. It is much easier to do you homework on one company. Particularly if that company is your employer.


Fin 325

Theoretically, diversification of investment enables investors to gain higher expected returns at the same level of risks. But it'll be hard to apply the idea to practice. How do investors know the exact number of companies they should invest in a specific case? Even if there is a number and names of the companies, the investors cannot be guaranteed the expected return.So investors tend to deal with some familiar investing environment.


Finance 325 Section 1

I am sure that it would take a lot of work to do research on a few different companies instead of just one. So although it makes sense to not throw all of your money into one company's stock, it seems like it would be the easier choice.


Fin 325, Sec 1

Although theoretically diversification is the most profitable strategy for investing, does this still require a certain amount of research into the risk of the company, and if so how does this solve the problem of those individuals with a lack of time, money, knowledge, etc?


FIN 325

I agree Keynes' opinion. Most people don't have professional knowledge and skills about investment, and to get those things, they should invest another money, time, and efforts. Even though they have much knowledge and skills about investment, those might be very small portion of investment. Thus, most individual investors couldn't get much profits from investment.


I also think that people

I also think that people mostly have concentrated portfolios because they lack the time or energy to research a wide variety of firms. However, I also think a concentrated profile can be successful, as long as the investor stays well informed about his/her investments and continues to compare their growth against market trends and other similar firms.


I think it is also true that

I think it is also true that many people buy 10-20 stocks but don't realize that they are all moving in tandem and that they actually have very little diversification. There is a website (http://www.assetcorrelation.com) which allows you to check how diversified your portfolio is by typing in the various ticker symbols. Hint: You're not nearly as diversified as you thought!


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